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IV Congreso FisEs Joven'26 -- 10-12 Marzo, 2026}
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\title{Evolving Safely: Adaptation and Phenotypic Diversity under Environmental and Demographic Constraints}

\author[1]{Marco Mendívil Carboni}

\affil[1]{Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos (GISC) and Departamento de Estructura de la Materia, Física Térmica y Electrónica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid}

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\keywords{Evolutionary dynamics, Continuous-time Markov processes, Phenotypic diversity}
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Natural populations rarely evolve under stable conditions. In this study, we introduce a minimal stochastic model to explore how adaptation unfolds under fluctuating environments and demographic constraints. By representing both environmental transitions and population dynamics as continuous-time Markov processes, we quantify how different regimes of variability shape evolutionary outcomes. Our results show that under strong environmental uncertainty and population pressure, populations evolve toward ``safer'' strategies, sacrificing part of their reproductive potential to reduce extinction risk. These findings offer a mechanistic perspective on how environmental noise and ecological limits drive the evolution of phenotypic diversity and robustness.

\begin{figure}[h]
  \centering
  \includegraphics{../sims/asymmetric/plots/strat_phe_0_i/rates.pdf}
  \caption{Extinction rate and average growth rate in our model for different initial conditions with and without evolutionary dynamics.}
  \label{fig}
\end{figure}

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